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It’s been a rather strange buildup to the richest fight in the history of British boxing.
The best estimate is that Tyson Fury vs Dillian Whyte will generate a bumper £70 million while the purse bid went for £31 million with Fury getting 80% and Whyte 20%.
Given that Whyte was unhappy with the deal and that he has the potential to earn more based on pay-per-view sales, you might have expected him to do a better job of selling the fight. Instead, he shunned an open workout in Wembley and just about made it to the pre-fight press conference.
It has largely been left to Fury to sell the fight but that job was made all the more difficult as he faced multiple questions about his relationship with Daniel Kinahan, a man who has been sanctioned by the United States government.
Despite the strangeness of the buildup there is no lack of appetite for the fight. There is also an appetite amongst punters as some sense there could be an upset in the betting.
Tyson Fury 1/5 (bet365)
Dillian Whyte 4/1 (Coral)
Draw 33/1 (Betfred)
(Please note all odds are correct at time of article publication)
Tyson Fury is the overwhelming favourite to win the fight. The best price available on the WBC and The Ring heavyweight world champion is the 1/5 that bet365 are quoting.
That looks far too short.
Some wise judges have suggested that this is the toughest fight of Fury’s career.
That may sound farfetched given that Fury beat Deontay Wilder twice, outclassed Wladimir Klitschko in Germany and came back from well publicised mental health issues. However, Whyte is an extremely dangerous fighter with the punch power to worry even a fighter with the defensive skills of Fury.
There’s also the suggestion that Whyte has taken his preparation more seriously than ever.
He chose not to cut his training camp in Portugal short to return to Britain and try to boost the PPV numbers. He’s also long felt that he belongs at the elite of world boxing and with just two professional losses to his name – against Anthony Joshua and Alexander Povetkin – Whyte has very much earned this fight.
All of this is not to say that Fury won’t win, simply that it is highly unlikely to be as straightforward as the market suggests. Therefore, there is no value to be had in backing Fury to win at heavy odds on.
Tyson Fury by KO, TKO or Disqualification 4/6 (Coral)
Tyson Fury by Decision or Technical Decision 5/2 (Betfred)
Dillian Whyte by KO, TKO or Disqualification 5/1 (Coral)
Dillian Whyte by Decision or Technical Decision 25/1 (Betfred)
Draw or Technical Draw 33/1 (Betfred)
The odds in the Method of Victory market are correct in that Whyte’s best chance of beating Fury is via a stoppage. Fury is the technically superior fighter so has the much the best chance of winning on points while his increasingly aggressive style will open up opportunities for Whyte on the counter.
Whyte also has a very long reach which makes him a danger and difficult to prepare for. Fury suggested that he would fight southpaw to try and limit the chances that Whyte has to use his left hook but it would be a mistake to think that he has only one weapon.
One route to potentially profiting from the likeliest outcomes of the fight is by dutching both Fury to win by decision at 4/6 with Ladbrokes and Whyte to win by knockout at 5/1, both with Coral. If either comes to pass you’ll net a 30% profit on your stake.
Tyson Fury in Round 9 @ 11/1 (bet365)
Tyson Fury in Round 7 @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
Tyson Fury in Round 8 @ 12/1 (Betfred)
Tyson Fury in Round 10 @ 12/1 (bet365)
Tyson Fury in Round 6 @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)
Tyson Fury in Round 5 @ 16/1 (Betfred)
Tyson Fury in Round 11 @ 16/1 (888sport)
Although we make Whyte the most likely to win via a stoppage Fury’s strength in the market means that he dominates the top of the Round Betting market. Fury himself has suggested that he will stop Whyte but that task has not been made any easier with the news that he is set to weigh in at his lightest for three years.
If Fury does score a knockout it is likely to come in the latter stages of the fight when Whyte begins to tire. Fury has the technical skill to get out of trouble for long periods and make Whyte miss a lot which is seriously tiring. A Fury knockout in Round 11 will be a tempting bet for many at 16/1 with 888sport.
Tyson Fury to Win by Decision or Technical Decision at 4/6 with Coral
Dillian Whyte to Win by KO, TKO or Disqualification at 5/1 with Coral