Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk betting tips

13th May 2024

So, here it is. Finally. The biggest fight in boxing. In less than a week. And here at The Free Bet Guide, we couldn’t be more excited.

Let’s just get two things out of the way straight away, though:

1. THIS IS the biggest fight in the world right now. Never mind Eddie Hearn trying to claim it is Tyson Fury v Anthony Joshua. That may be a bigger money maker, but this is the big one. This is the two undefeated champions.
2. We believe the very best version of Tyson Fury beats the very best version of Oleksandr Usyk.

Now, how can Fury v AJ be bigger than Fury v Usyk, when Usyk has beat AJ twice?

Tyson Fury is the unbeaten WBC and lineal heavyweight champion, and was previously the unified heavyweight champion, having at one time also held the WBA, IBF and WBO titles after defeating Usyk’s fellow Ukrainian, Wladimir Klitschko. Usyk himself now holds all those belts since defeating Anthony Joshua, as well as the Ring belt.

We do believe the best version of Fury beats Usyk every day of the week. But some will say you are only as good as your last fight. In Fury’s case, his last opponent was Francis Ngannou. A former UFC heavyweight champion, but a man who had never stepped into a boxing ring as a professional before. And Fury edged a points decision on a very, very poor night by his standards. 

Usyk’s last fight was against Daniel Dubois, Fury’s stablemate under Frank Warren’s Queensberry Promotions banner. This wasn’t a great performance by Usyk, either, though he also got the job done, via KO in the 9th round. Dubois caused him problems, dropping him with a shot that the referee deemed a low blow but lots claimed it was a legitimate shot and pointed to this showing that Usyk is vulnerable to shots to the body.

They only have one mutual opponent, that being Derek Chisora. Fury has fought him three times. The first time being as far back as 2011. This was a British and Commonwealth title fight, with Fury inflicting the bookies’ favourite Chisora’s first loss via a unanimous points decision.

They rematched in 2014 and this was far more comprehensive, with Fury choosing to fight southpaw for almost the whole match, completely bamboozling Chisora who struggled to land a glove the whole fight, with his corner retiring him at the end of the tenth round.

In 2022 they completed their trilogy, but this time it was a case of Fury giving his friend a final big payday, as they were nowhere near the same level by this time. The niceties ended there, though, with Fury stopping his opponent, again in the tenth round.

Usyk fought Chisroa in just his second fight in the heavyweight division after absolutely cleaning up the cruiserweight scene. Chisora caused Usyk all kinds of problems on the night, with some fans and pundits even believing Chisora won, but in truth, Usyk rightfully got the unanimous points win.

These facts do not tell the full story to us, though. The fact it was only Usyk’s second fight at heavyweight says a lot. He has now grown into the weight and is a natural, proper heavyweight, rather than a pumped up cruiserweight. Since then he has had the two great wins over AJ, and the one against Dubois.

We believe the best Usyk will face Fury on Saturday night.

We also do NOT believe that the best Fury faced Ngannou. It was a very sluggish performance from him. He and his camp claimed he trained properly for it, but his body shape told another story. Compare that to the images we are seeing now.

Also – unlike Joshua who pulverised Ngannou within two rounds – we don’t believe Fury prepared mentally for the fight. We think he thought he could take it easy and still win easily, and that is a dangerous mindset and he nearly paid for it. There’s no doubt that he will be 100% focused with Usyk, so there can be no excuses from either fighter mentally.

The Fury that schooled Klistchko on the back foot, moving fast, the head movement and footwork almost Ali like, is probably gone for good due to Old Father Time. However, the same Fury that battered Deontay Wilder in the second of their three fights, is still hopefully in there, and that version of Fury beats Usyk.

So, to be clear, if you think Fury is shot to pieces as it seemed in the Ngannou fight, put your money on Usyk. If you believe like we do, that Fury can still fight like he did in the Wilder fights, then Fury is your man.

And one more thing on this note; Fury has often underperformed down the years against lesser opponents that he is supposed to beat easily, but he has still always found a way to win. However, against the top opponents, the ones where he is the underdog or is in for a tough night, (Chisora first two fights, Klitschko, Wilder x 3, Dillian Whyte), he has always had his head right and put on a boxing masterclass.

Match Winner Market

(Please note all odds are correct at time of article publishing)

Tyson Fury 10/11 (Coral)

Oleksandr Usyk 21/20 (BetFred)

Draw 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

We don’t know if we have ever seen a boxing match winner market closer than this. They are very nearly joint favourites, with Fury only just shading favouritism. This though, is good for punters. Very rarely can you double your money (or almost double your money) on a favourite in a boxing match. Whoever you fancy here, and perhaps you are very keen on one or the other, it’s good value.

Will The Fight Go The Distance Market

Yes 8/15 (BetFred)

No 13/8 (Bet365)

This market massively interests us, because we strongly fancy the fight to go all the way. You may think that 8/15 is no price to bet on, but it might just be a massive, massive banker, that you can stick in all your accas for the weekend, or put a lumpy bet on to cover your other fight bets. This is our plan, because while we fancy the Fury win on points, this covers your back in case Usyk gets the points win. We just cannot see either fighter being stopped.

Method of Victory Market

Fury on points 2/1 (Coral)

Fury via KO, TKO or DQ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

Usyk on points 2/1 (Bet365)

Usyk via KO, TKO or DQ 5/1 (Bet365)

We fancy Fury on points, but whatever you fancy in the fight, this is a way of using smaller stakes and getting decent odds.

Betting Recommendations

Fight to go the distance Yes 8/15 (BetFred) – 5 points

Tyson Fury to win 10/11 (Coral) – 3 points

Tyson Fury to win on points 2/1 (Coral) – 2 points