Benfica vs Real Madrid UCL Betting Preview & Tips

15th February 2026

It was the final game of the Champions League Group Stage that saw both sides end up in the Playoffs in the first place.

In an absolute game for the ages, Benfica defeated Real Madrid, consigning Madrid to the Playoffs, having finished 9th, whilst seeng themselves qualify in 24th place.

As fans of the Champions League will know, though, that doesn’t tell the full story. With all the other games finished, going into injury time, Benfica led 3-2. Madrid knew that they needed to equalise to get the point necessary to take them into 8th place, and therefore avoid the Playoffs, heading straight into the Round of 16.

However, a 3-2 win was not quite enough to see Benfica into the Playoffs – not that their players seemed to realise. Their fans and coaches screamed, shouted and whistled, and finally the penny dropped that they needed a fourth goal to make it on goal difference.

Cue end to end action that resulted in the kind of drama that all football fans absolutely love to see. In the 98th minute, Benfica won a freekick midway in Real Madrid’s half. Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin sprinted forward to join the attack. The ball was played into the area, and Trubin rose above everyone else to thump a header past opposite number, Thibaut Courtois! Players, coaches and fans all went crazy, and Benfica took the last Playoff place.

Oh, and just to add to the drama, Real Madrid got two red cards in injury time for Raul Asencio and Rodyrgo, ruling Asencio out of the first leg, and Rodrygo out of both legs.

Can this game live up to the drama in that one?!

 

Match Betting Odds

(Please note all odds are correct at time of publishing)

Benfica 11/4 (Bet365)

Draw 29/10 (Ladbrokes)

Real Madrid 10/11 (Coral)

 

Domestically, Benfica have made their Estádio da Luz stadium an absolute fortress, winning 7 and drawing 4 of their 11 home games in the league this season. Indeed, they are actually unbeaten in the league this season, but too many draws sees them sit in third place, 4 points behind Porto who have a game in hand as well. 

Real Madrid are of course in a fight for the Spanish title with Barcelona, currently sitting two points clear, though Barca have a game in hand. Madrid beat Real Sociedad 4-1 on Saturday night, while Benfica won 2-1 at Santa Clara on Friday night.

Benfica have had a mixed bag of results at home in the Champions League so far this year, losing their first two home games against FK Qarabag and Bayer Leverkusen. They then had two impressive home wins against Napoli and Real Madrid.

Madrid won away to Kairat Almaty and Olympiacos, but lost away to Liverpool and Benfica, of course.

This game is a really tough one to call, but as Benfica are difficult to beat at home, we would lean towards the Benfica win, or a draw.

Madrid are missing several players too.

 

Double Chance

Benfica/Draw 10/11 (Ladbrokes)

Real Madrid/Draw 2/7 (BetFred)

Benfica/Real Madrid 2/7 (Bet365)

 

This is why we prefer this market. For a team with such a good home record, who beat them 4-2 at home only last month, odds of 10/11 on the double chance are fantastic. Yes, Real Madrid are the better team, and yes, Benfica did lose 2 out of 4 Champions League home games. But since that, they massively improved in the Champions League, culminating in the pulsating victory over Madrid.

First legs of the Champions League are often tight, tense games anyway, and neither side would be too disappointed with a draw, nor would Madrid be too disappointed in losing by the odd goal.

 

First Goalscorer (Selected)

 

As always, we turn to BetFred for this market (whenever the Double Delight and Hat-trick Heaven bonus is available), because if you correctly select the first goalscorer and he goes on to score again, you get double the odds, if he scores a third time, it is treble the odds.

So, all below odds are courtesy of BetFred:

Kylian Mbappe 11/4

Vangelis Pavlidis 4/1

Gonzalo Garcia 9/2

Vinicius Junior 5/1 

Arda Guler 17/2

Franco Mastantuono 9/1

Gianluca Prestianni 10/1

Andreas Schjelderup 12/1

 

The obvious direction to turn is towards Kylian Mbappe. He is the top goalscorer in the Champions League with 13 goals in 7 games, the top goalscorer in La Liga with 23 goals in 22 games, and across all competitions he has 38 goals in 31 games. He is, quite simply, a goal machine and the current best player on the planet. You just can’t ignore a player in the form he is in, and with the ability he has.

And, if he does score two or three goals having scored first, meaning the Benfica double chance bet would probably lose, it wouldn’t matter as the bonus odds on the goals would cover all bets.

We do have to be careful, though, as he has had a knee injury, so he may not even start. Make sure to wait for lineups to come out first, and keep stakes to a reasonable level, as the injury may not have fully healed.

Of course, Vini Jr, Gonzalo Garcia and Arda Guler are all extremely dangerous for Madrid too, while Vangelis Pavlidis is deadly for Benfica, and Leandro Barreiro and Andreas Schjelderup both chip in with their fair share of goals.

We’d like a bet on Mbappe should he start, and a smaller stake on Pavlidis.

Team news

The big news that could change the whole game is that Kylian Mbappe might miss out. He has only been training in the gym the last few days, away from the rest of the squad to try to ensure he is fit. He was an unused substitute for the game against Real Sociedad on Saturday night, with his replacement, Gonzalo Garcia, grabbing a goal.

Madrid will definitely be without Eder Militao, Ferland Mendy and Jude Bellingham through injury, plus the suspended pair Rodrygo and Raul Asencio.

For Benfica, Alexander Bah, Henrique Araujo, Joao Veloso and Richard Rios are all out with injuries.

 

Betting Recommendations

Benfica/Draw 10/11 (Ladbrokes) – 6 points

Kylian Mbappe First Goalscorer 11/4 (BetFred) – 2 points

Vangelis Pavlidis First Goalscorer 4/1 – 1 point